It's important to remember that even if, say, Edmonds gets 14 more touches than Conner in Week 1, that doesn't mean the pendulum won't swing back in Conner's favor in the near future. Unfortunately, it might take an injury for fantasy owners to really feel good about some of these backs.
That's why a player like Hunt is so valuable. Even though we know he's not Cleveland's "lead back," we also know he has a valuable role and will see double-digit touches every week. Even when Chubbis rolling, Hunt has shown the abilitity to have a good game. Case in point: Last year, in the 12 games in which Chubb played, Hunt averaged A clearly defined role is important in fantasy.
Both Singletary and Moss have more individual upside if they're leading the Bills backfield, but it's anyone's guess which one will -- and if they will remain in that role. If you pick right in this tier, it could really pay off. Chances are, the "Zero-RBers" out there have guessed right in the past and think they can do it every time. Maybe they can especially if they're willing to be active on the waiver wire all year , but it's not a fun game to play, at least not with all of your RB spots.
Getting good value on flexes and backups in this tier is great, but unless you get multiple backs from the same team, which limits your overall upside, you are taking some level of risk.
That risk increases based on how much you're relying on these players. That's why we suggest having at least three top backs on your team by the start of the eighth round, but if you trust your instincts, you can chart a different path. Touchdowns will likely be an issue for all, which is why even in PPR their overall values can be limited, but they provide a decent floor thanks to regular targets.
As Gibson continues to emerge as a pass-catching option in Washington, we could see McKissic lose some value, but for now, he still has to be considered among the elite pass-catching backs. The ceilings are clearly higher than anyone including us thinks they are on draft day. Gainwell, who caught 51 passes in his final season at Memphis, could be on his way to joining them. That said, you don't want to be counting on the backs in this tier to be starting for you in Week 1 in standard leagues.
Murray, Jamaal Williams, Pollard, Dillon and Ty'Son Williams should get a decent amount of work, perhaps not unlike Hunt in the tier above, so they're nice to have even if you don't own the backs in front of them.
Sermon is a popular sleeper who could emphasis on "could" contribute right away, and it's likely someone in the Jets, Rams, and Chargers backfields other than Carter, Henderson, and Ekeler will have notable roles, but the jury is still out on who.
We're favoring Coleman, Jones, and Jackson right now, but we'll have to continue to monitor those situations throughout the preseason. Someone will emerge from these tiers, likely because of injury, to have an RB2-caliber season. If Cook gets hurt in Minnesota or Jacobs in Vegas, then Mattison and Drake will immediately be inserted into starting lineups with no hesitations. That's true for a lot of these guys, so it's good to grab one or two in the middle and late rounds, especially if it's someone like Sermon, Stevenson, Michel and maybe even Brown who might not even need an injury to shine.
Sermon will likely command the highest pick, perhaps in the early middle rounds, but it's easy to imagine a scenario where he pays off in a big way. You can consider the rest of these backs "high-priority" handcuffs. If you draft, say, Aaron Jones in the first or second round, it's smart to make it a point to get Dillon. That could mean reaching a round higher than everyone else, but you don't want to lose one of your cornerstones and replace him with a waiver pickup who gets nine touches on a good day.
If you're a Zero-RBer and you're mining these tiers for a Week 1 starter, you might as well swing for the fences, at least in standard leagues. Grabbing one "safe" guy, like Pollard, will guarantee you some points each week, but if you go all-in on this finally being the year for Penny, you might get a bigger payoff since Seattle is notoriously weird with their running backs.
You also might get a guy who's on the IR by Week 2. That's why it's a risky strategy, but it can work if your pass-catchers are monsters and you have even a moderate hit on a couple RBs. There are some legitimate sleepers in tier. Ahmed was a stud in his three full games as a starter last year, posting 63 touches seven catches , total yards, and two scores. He could emerge in Miami even without a significant injury to someone else. Kelley and Perine struggled last year as rookies, but they're both in unsettled backfields that have openings for 1Bs, if not 1As.
Someone other than Mike Davis also figures to emerge for Atlanta, creating an opportunity for one or both of Patterson and Ollison. Also, the league's move to a game schedule is yet another reason to bulk up. Coaches will devise a plan to keep their running backs fresh by installing some sort of "pitch count," even for the top stars in the league. You'll see two-back tandems more often, though it shouldn't affect the premier guys as much as others who aren't as explosive.
Combine that with the normal wear-and-tear running backs deal with and we will all find more running backs stumbling into reliable pockets of playing time once the season unfolds, even if it's just for two or three weeks. Then collect at least three more running backs the rest of the way. So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season , and find out.
By Dave Richard. Sep 7, at pm ET 3 min read. Getty Images. But in case you're not sure if you want to invest heavily in running backs, consider the following checklist: Look over the players in the first five running back tiers in PPR first four in non-PPR. If most or all of them are guys you could see yourself starting, you could probably get away with spending just one of your first four picks on a running back.
Conversely, if you don't like as many names, then you've got to chase the running backs you do like with your first two, maybe three picks. This a personal preference thing for every Fantasy manager, but my instinct is to take running backs early on. If the thought of willingly starting any of them makes you violently ill, then you know you should prioritize running backs with your early choices.
To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. Of course there are caveats. Yes you should draft a RB in the first round… if one of the top X is available. Same with whether to draft a QB in the first round…it depends on your draft position I started with the list of top 12 scorers from last season see top 25 below. If you take the analysis out to the top 25 the numbers change somewhat. This should be an eye opener for everyone.
Almost half of the top 25 are QBs. Since there is typically a maximum of 12 teams in a league you have a pretty good chance of getting a QB much latter in the draft.
While I think you can get a good QB in the first round I would say never go earlier than the third round. Hell I got Matt Ryan in the 12th round two seasons ago. He had a big year obviously. So would I ever draft a QB in the first round? Probably not but my advice to you is you better be pretty sure your guy is going to be top five if you pull the trigger. Are you willing to pull the trigger on Russell Wilson in the first this season?
How about our QB Cam Newton? Tom Brady? Notice Drew Brees is not on the list.
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